Holy Shift
Keynote · Megatrends, signals, strategy
Five signals rather than ten forces
A megatrends talk usually lists ten forces and leaves you no better informed than when you arrived. It is based on Craig’s own research, demonstrating that we are moving even faster than “exponentials” and that when more than 3.46 changes occur, we have transcended exponential into factorial. This talk exposes five signals (versus trends) and shows how to determine them before they change your world.
Conference opening and closing slots, annual kick-offs, and client events where the audience spans industries.
Holy Shift
The problem
Most futurists, trend experts or economists present a list of the “latest trends” which they state will affect us. But how do they really know? In reality, most utilise a method known as horizon scanning, which is a fancy term for internet research, backed by compelling videos and stories with little substance or research, the equivalent of sleight of hand to stun and entertain.
Rather, Craig shows from a research perspective how we need only 3.46 changes to move from exponential to factorial change and explores the ones that are most prescient. However, that is before they become trends. Craig shows how to identify them before your competitors and before they become the proverbial tsunamis of change.
Holy Shift
What is
happening now
Adoption curves have steepened across the past century, breaking the planning cadence most organisations still use: from the telephone taking decades to reach mass use, the internet taking years, Pokémon Go taking months and ChatGPT passing a million users in under a week (Sam Altman, 5 December 2022). This can be explained by the Red Queen effect, named after the scene in Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking-Glass (1871) in which the Red Queen tells Alice: “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!”
It’s not just the speed of change, but what is it exactly? How can organisations learn from Sherlock Holmes’ Baker Street dozen, Welgevonden’s approach to saving rhinos or a theoretical thought experiment of space travel? These examples will show how to create systems to identify signals and the possible repercussions of trends and how strong signals can shape the future. Using the Futures Wheel, delegates will find a way to understand several orders of consequence for their organisation and in their industry.
Holy Shift
The keynote
The talk explores the obvious forces of geopolitics, technology, climate change and society, then concentrates on how to tell a signal from noise before the trend is obvious and which of the five you are positioned to act on. The five signals are rebuilt for each audience, customising the content to ensure it is relatable and using the Futures Wheel to anticipate the impact.
*If your team would prefer a practical exercise, you can run a free trial on playscenarios.com where leaders can gamify the future.
Holy Shift
What you get
Five signals specific to your sector backed by research and evidence along with anecdotal stories, a method for separating a weak signal from noise before it morphs into a trend, and how to determine the impact by becoming proactive.
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Preparation
hardens decisions.
He takes bookings for keynotes, MC and hosting, workshops and advisory work, both directly and through speaker bureaus.
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